Volkswagen could overtake Tesla in global EV sales as early as 2024, report says

2021 Volkswagen ID.4 | Photo: Matt St-Pierre

  • Bloomberg Intelligence believes Tesla will remain the EV leader for another 18 months

  • Volkswagen already sells more EVs in Europe than Tesla, but its sales in America are more muted

  • The report puts Chinese manufacturer BYD in third place, followed by Ford

Bloomberg Intelligence has just published a report on the subject of electric vehicles and its conclusions show that Tesla’s supremacy could be closer to its end than expected.

Indeed, the report states that the Volkswagen Group (comprising Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Porsche and Lamborghini) will be able to sell more EVs globally than Tesla in just 18 months.

Tesla would still hold a comfortable second place, with nearly a million more units sold than the third-place competitor, but it would be the first time the American company was not the top EV maker.

These predictions are based on each company’s current sales figures, as well as current trends and anticipated product launches, so any major shifts in the industry or economy could lead to results that differ materially from those highlighted here.

Nevertheless, Volkswagen already sells more electric vehicles in Europe than Tesla, with 310,000 units delivered in 2021, compared to 170,000 for Tesla. If the German company manages to increase its presence in North America over the next year and a half, this prediction will prove to be correct.

The third EV manufacturer in 2024 is expected to be BYD, currently the most popular brand for electric vehicles in China. Ford will likely take fourth place due to the popularity of the F-150 Lightning, facing General Motors, which will have introduced a number of new EVs by then, many of which are expected to be affordable.

This rivalry will be short-lived, however, as the report predicts Ford to take the lead in 2025, with China’s Changan closing the gap between the two American companies.

Stellantis will take the seventh spot, mainly thanks to its sales in Europe, as it will only have one or two electric models to offer in North America by then, with the others arriving after 2025.

This will be closely followed by Geely, aided by its subsidiaries Volvo and Polestar, and then Mercedes-Benz, which is about to launch a number of luxury battery-powered vehicles.

Toyota should complete the top 10, a little further than Mercedes. This is to be expected since the company has just launched its first global electric vehicle and it has not yet confirmed the next one.

The report also predicts that the combined EV market share will reach 15% of all vehicles sold globally in 2025, up from just 6% last year.

Leave a Comment